I have to preface this post by saying I’m environmentally selfish, it is only because I see that it effects me that I care. Greenpeace and organisations of their ilk sound to me like people with too much time on their hands.
According to wikipedia optimistic estimates of when we will reach the point at which the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline or peak oil is 2020. So over the next while we will be looking at a massive increase in prices of oil.
I’ve heard many facts like this from environmentalists for years, oil is running out, so what? We’ll just switch over to electric and everything will be fine, but a little research and you’ll discover that isn’t the case. Before we can be sure of a replacement they must meet these requirements.
- Any replacement for oil must be renewable, otherwise it will run out just like the oil did.
- The vast majority of machinery runs on oil, conversion is going to be expensive
- Oil flowed in massive quantities a replacement would have to match that volume.
A solution to point 1 and 3 could be a mixture of the following
- Wind Mills
- Solar Panels
- Tidal generators (not yet developed)
- Hydroelectric stations ala Shannon
- Biomass
Any one of them on their own would not produce enough electricity. Nuclear Power stations was suggested to me but that requires a non renewable energy source (uranium) but would help while the infrastructure is being built.
Point 2 is a little more tricky, there is no type of oil that can be produced in the same quantity, corn oil just can’t be producd that fast. Electricity is the obvious choice, you don’t really want the situation of a million different types of energy being sold. It means that everyone has to create a product for each type of energy. Electricity makes sense but the drawbacks are that it can’t be transported as easily, you can’t send it down pipes (doesn’t travel well) and batteries aren’t ideal either. This would probably result in a shift in focus away from energy in global politics.
When you put all of them together it doesn’t seem likely that the world as a whole will react appropriately. There will have to be some sort of fallout from the decrease in oil supply before something is done.
What I’d expect to see once the oil starts running out is the following
- Flights become prohibitively expensive (plane fuel costs too much)
- Imports/Exports down massively (too expensive)
- Local food supply (can transport in food quickly)
- No more commuter belt (petrol prices)
- Famines, doughts, econmic collapse in places previously wealthy (Areas with no farm land)
- Massive superpower shift from who has the weapons to who has the energy. The US will still be on top, but there will be massive shifts underneath.
Feel free to comment and add to the knowledge.
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